CWC AFF (Beta)

CENTRAL WATER COMMISSION -- FLOOD ADVISORY FORECAST

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Ensemble Forecast for

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Disclaimer :

The outputs of 15-days GEOGLOWS ECMWF Streamflow Forecast has been taken as service without bais correction for selected reserviors of Indian River basins.
This is for display purpose only
CWC acknowledges sharing of customized 23 member ensemble rainfall forecast by National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), a Centre of Excellence in Weather and Climate Modelling under the Ministry of Earth Sciences w.e.f. 2022.
With the objective of giving probabilistic flood forecast, CWC is piloting its mathematical flood forecast model for all the members of NCMRWF ensemble rainfall forecast. The ensemble rainfall forecast are processed in automated manner using suitable programming scripts and flood forecast mathematical models are run on daily basis at 1700hrs for each ensemble datasets sequentially resulting 23 hydrological forecast outputs for each station. The data assimilation technique is applied to minimize the error.
The water level and inflow forecast for flood forecasting stations is extracted from the model outputs. The maximum, 75 percentile, mean & 25 percentile forecast output from 23ensemble mathematical outputs for 10 days is being used for display purpose
Forecast is subject to uncertainty due to errors in measurement, rainfall forecast, model parameters, lack of information on reservoir operating rules/real time releases and other unknown factors such as landslide, glacier outburst, embankment breach etc.