FIVE DAY ADVISORY FLOOD FORECAST

CENTRAL WATER COMMISSION

Ensemble Flood hydrograph for

State name: Select State ALL_STATIONS ANDHRA_PRADESH ARUNACHAL_PRADESH ASSAM BIHAR CHHATTISGARH DAMAN_DIU GUJARAT HARYANA HIMACHAL_PRADESH JAMMU_KASHMIR JHARKHAND KARNATAKA KERALA MADHYA_PRADESH MAHARASHTRA NCT_OF_DELHI ODISHA PUNJAB RAJASTHAN SIKKIM TAMILNADU TELANGANA TRIPURA UTTAR_PRADESH UTTARAKHAND WEST_BENGAL

Station name: Select station

Disclaimer :

1. CWC acknowledges sharing of customized 23 member ensemble rainfall forecast by National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), a Centre of Excellence in Weather and Climate Modelling under the Ministry of Earth Sciences w.e.f. 2022.
2. With the objective of giving probabilistic flood forecast, CWC is piloting its mathematical flood forecast model for all the members of NCMRWF ensemble rainfall forecast. The ensemble rainfall forecast are processed in automated manner using suitable programming scripts and flood forecast mathematical models are run on daily basis at 1700hrs for each ensemble datasets sequentially resulting 23 hydrological forecast outputs for each station. The data assimilation technique is applied to minimize the error.
3. The water level and inflow forecast for flood forecasting stations is extracted from the model outputs. The maximum, 75 percentile, mean & 25 percentile forecast output from 23ensemble mathematical outputs for 10 days is being used for display purpose
4. Forecast is subject to uncertainty due to errors in measurement, rainfall forecast, model parameters, lack of information on reservoir operating rules/real time releases and other unknown factors such as landslide, glacier outburst, embankment breach etc.